Inputs
- Election results history
- District boundaries
- Turnout and registration where public
- Candidate and filing context
Methodology
Explain the recommendation before asking anyone to trust it.
October Surprise combines public records with transparent analyst judgment. Scores are useful only when the evidence and caveats stay visible.
Scoring
- Margin pattern
- Volatility
- Local authority
- Timing and research value
Outputs
- Priority
- Confidence
- Clear recommendation
- Next research checks